The bearish arguments on G* are generally made by people well served by cheap cellular in high pop density areas. In order of increasing sophistication, these arguments go (1) nobody lives anywhere else, (2) well, some people live/travel there, but they couldn't afford G*; or, (3) terrestrial cellular will beat G* on price if (1) and (2) turn out to be incorrect. I think the calculation above helps debunk argument (3).
A few observations on these arguments:
1) 3rd/world underserved can't afford - look at the latest National Geographic. The lead article is on cultures and how differing ones are coming into the info age. One pictures shows a village in India complete with shacks, dirt floors, and oh yea, a tv.
2) I have been into the no. central area of Mexico and travelled the dirt roads from farm to farm and small towns. Kids were out playing with no shoes. Makes the sat dish along side their shacks look kinda out of place. I guess they figured the kids didn't need shoes but they needed to watch the boob tube.
3) The Alcatel experience in the Russian village comes to mind where they took in 8,000 handsets thinking it would take weeks to sell. They did it in one day.
4) If the underdeveloped countries need and want mss and the gen population can find the money (i.e. tv's and sat dishes) why didn't Iridium reach this market?
a) No license in Mexico b) no China sp (I guess 60% gov owned China Telecom looked askance at Iridium cutting into their business) These may be some of the reasons.
I spoke with someone last night who lives central Idaho. He is a contractor who works various jobs within 100 miles of their town. He has a cell phone which works in most areas within a ten mile radius of his town (about 3000 folks). He relys mostly on a radio telephone which has many coverage gaps and only works when in site of radio towers in various towns. I asked if they would consider a sat phone. They said they are waiting for it want it and will buy when available. It will solve a big problem for them. I asked if it mattered that it didn't work inside a building. They said that didnt' matter at all. They needed it when they were on job sites or recreating on the river, etc. They did not know that I was a G* bull and I didn't even mention Globalstar. Ok rajaja, take your shot. There are only 10 people in Idaho, I know. I think this incident can be multiplied.
Finally, I recd a questionnaire from AirTouch this am inquiring about my potention G* usage. They are asking the right questions like how much expected usage and how much would I be willing to pay for a handset. I said 3,000 per handset - JUST KIDDING!
Sorry about the long post. Some of us just don't have a life some Saturday mornings. |
