Dave, thanks, I think I agree with 90% of what you say. To answer some of your questions, no I didn't buy at .35 but I did pick some up at .72 in the winter.
Somebody, of course did buy the shares south of .50 and of course has made a nice profit. As to buying when things looked bleak, Baron Rothschild said the best time to buy is when there is blood in the streets. It's hard to do though.
(I wanted to buy at .46 before Xmas and my wife and broker thought I was nuts).
As regards to MD status, don't you know that all physicians are obsessed, and convinced that they are right on all issues? Some have multiple mistresses, some race Porsches, some play the market, some are private pilots. Psychologically, I am in the sophomoric class, who didn't take my profits at $4.90, or cut my losses on the way down, and am hanging on for a recovery. [You are absolutely correct about timing, and mine is horrid] In my personal situation, this is further complicated in that I believe the CMR story.
As to my professional activities, I spend 1/2 my time seeing patients and the other half consulting on occupational pulmonary issues, whence I am online either searching NLM or transmitting, so hit SI often.
Hope that answers some of your questions as to my motives.
I am not questioning your motives or credibility, but hopefully it's ok with you to question your conclusions or sources? If not, let me know.
The problem I have with your conclusions, is that the conclusion always seems to be don't buy CMR. To me the reasoning seems to change, but the conclusion never does.
I completely accept your standard reasoning that one buys majors first in a resource recovery (although % increases to date in INCO and CMR are of the same order of magnitude).
However, again using standard reasoning, the juniors which are succesful have the potential for much higher returns than the majors. Am I mistaken on this point.
Also I disagree with your conclusion that you have been right on CMR for over a year. I will agree that you were right up until Jan 1, 1999. Since then the price as noted is up. I don't know what appropriate overhead is for a junior trying to become an intermediated. As noted, I'm in a service industry, and am a solo proprietorship, so no stock issues, but my overhead is US 200,000 per year. Looking at national averages, my overhead is about 25% lower (as % of gross) than multi-physician clinics. So I am uncertain that an extraction company with stock market issues has significantly higher overhead than expected.
The 3rd, and I think last issue where I disagree with you is your conclusion that there is no financing. I don't think Cobatec would have sold to them if they didn't anticipate being paid, and the PR this week said 1.2 mil has been obtained through flow through.
Again, my apologies if any of my comments have been construed as casting aspersions on you personally. As noted, I continue to disagree with some, but not all, of your conclusions.
And no disagreement that life is a treasure. I don't know if I can express this well, but the last year has been a fascinating intellectual challenge in regards to the metals markets. [and yes, it's fun having been right]. Working on an intellectual challenge and committing one's resources is fun for me, and less of a headache than chasing women, playing golf or racing Porsches, which appear to be the prime recreational pursuits of some of my colleauges.
Take care. |
