if most people were modestly prepared they have no reason to panic
I agree with that. The question is: what's to be done now to effect that end. Operative word is "now."
We have 4 months to go and over half the U.S. population with no more than a vague recognition of the issue. Most people could probably pick out the term, Y2K, on a multiple choice test--no more. Whole populations don't change course on a dime. Ever tried to change the culture of a business organization--maybe customer service or TQM? Takes years to make a few degree change of direction--either that or something really dramatic happening, like downsizing. I don't think there's any way to get that many people educated and motivated in the time remaining without shocking them into a panic. The time to get people prepared is behind us. That is reason 1.
Reason 2 is that, assuming everyone could be brought around to walk calmly down to their local grocery, hardware, etc. stores to get their "modest" supplies, I don't think there's enough stuff out there in that pipeline of yours to satisfy all of their needs. Perhaps there would be enough if you define "modest" as the 3-5 day hurricane scenario. Perhaps. If people find shortages in the stores, they will panic.
I just don't see any way to accomplish this modest preparation of the population in the time remaining without a panic. Which I why I say that the best approach is to back off the shrill warnings and go with the Koskinen approach--yeah, the one that draws such ridicule around here.
The doomers raised the alarm way back when. That was a real public service. The message didn't get as much appreciation as the doomers thought it warranted. One thing that often happens when people are frustrated that their message is not getting through is to speak more loudly and more insistantly. IMO, that is a dangerous path right now because of the enormous risk of a panic, which would compound any other problems we have with Y2K, perhaps be even worse than Y2K itself.
Even harder than convincing Ken and Ron to give their flame war a rest would be convincing the doomers to tone down the rhetoric, but I think that would be the smart and the classy thing to do. The doomers have done what they can to get the message out. IMO, any further pressure is, at best, counterproductive.
Karen |
