Jim--
The point I was trying to make re: global supply chains/chemical industry is that business, processing and manufacturing industry relationships are fraught with links that can break...the effect of which could take months to manifest themselves (Jeff's GM example)or wreck havoc immediately on a variety of industries (Grabow's demise of niche chemical producer example.)
IMHO whether or not some or all of us here in the U.S. have light, heat and hot water the morning of 01/01/00 has little or no bearing on the problem stated above or whether you should by toilet paper now as opposed to February.
Some who are preparing with food, water, generators, lanterns, batteries, toilet paper etc... are doing so with short term utility or supply chain disruptions in mind. Some are looking at preparations as recession insurance. Other's are expecting TEOTWAWKI.
I think these are two separate issues rather than an if/then question as you stated here:
>>>...If some of us are 100% certain that there will not be any problems with the utilities (hydro and water) next January, what sort of precautions do you think we should take now because of these possible shortages, that we could not take next January and February.<<<
(However, I will admit that given what I heard about the screwed-up situation in Italy I am laying in a two year supply of my favorite high-priced olive oil. I can't shake that Italian y2k official who said something like, "Mama mia! They're going to crucify us!" when confronted with the enormity of the problem and the lack of awareness to date. Hey, call me crazy or whatever you want. I ain't takin' no chances when it comes to olive oil.)
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