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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates
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To: LLCF who wrote (5052)8/22/1999 10:41:00 AM
From: Mike Buckley  Read Replies (2) of 54805
 
How about comparing market size and growth rate between a Cisco and Q?? Seems Q's could be quite a bit smaller in both cases???

Good idea, David. What do you think the market size and growth rate will be? I'm hazy, at best, on both.

As for market size, the market is any person on the planet at least 8 years old. How do you calculate the size of that market?

There's no question that the unit price of Qualcomm's product is a lot lower than the unit price of Cisco's market. But Cisco isn't going to sell nearly as many of its products as Qualcomm will. So I really don't have any empirical evidence to show how the two markets compare in size, though I tend to think Qualcomm's will be bigger because almost everyone on the planet is a potential customer.

And that's just the CDMA market. I'm not including any of the other markets Qualcomm has its fingers in today, nor any of the markets that the Q will penetrate that we havent' thought about. When Microsoft was at the point that Qualcomm is today, did any of us remotely think it would be in all the businesses that it's in today? Not I.

As for the growth rate, the best we can do is to be aware of the growth rates of past gorillas selling enabling product to consumers. There are darn few of them, but in each case their growth was tremendous, and the growth of their stock has far outpaced the growth of the company.

Anyone wanna take a sincere stab at estimating Qualcomm's market and growth?

--Mike Buckley
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