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Politics : Ask Michael Burke
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To: Knighty Tin who wrote (66607)8/22/1999 11:51:00 AM
From: Freedom Fighter  Read Replies (2) of 132070
 
Mike,

>>I think her problem at Elmont was an off day, not the boys or the
distance.<<

I agree 100% that she would have beaten those fillies yesterday no matter how far they ran. I also agree that Baffert made an error going to Belmont instead of Kentucky.

My original idea was that the vast majority of fillies don't run as well as distances stretch out past 1 1/4 (on dirt only). That's been my observation over a very long period of time of a number of outstanding fillies that tried 1 1/2. I think it's a stamina thing. (I'm a horse sexist (g) So when they match up against colts, the shorter the distance the better the fillies do on average.

You can see it by looking at Breeders Cup results. Fillies match up well and win the sprint all the time. But I can't think of any that I think could have run fast enough to win the Classic.

I've also seen it in the Beyer figures. Filly figures tend to tail off past 1 1/8 or 1 1/4 with only some exceptions.

There's also a physical maturity thing going on. Two year old fillies often run just as fast or faster than 2 year old colts. The gap slowly widens as they both mature. At Derby time the fillies are further along towards their peak while the colts are just getting going. By the end of the year the colts will be running several lengths faster than they were in the spring and the fillies may not have moved forward much at all.

In any event, she is brilliant. I agree with you.

Wayne
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