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Technology Stocks : Jabil Circuit (JBL)
JBL 201.800.0%Nov 14 9:30 AM EST
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To: rich evans who wrote (5268)8/22/1999 1:54:00 PM
From: rich evans  Read Replies (2) of 6317
 
This stock and its valuation has me confused. Revs for year ending Aug 31 should be about 2 bill with earnings of 30 cents for Q4 giving 1.11 for the year. This gives rev growth for 99 at 60% or about 800 mill. In 2000 the anylysts are projection 1.50 for the year. This must be based on gross margins of 11% and another 800 mill in rev growth with a tax rate of 34% before the GET deal. But this 800 mill would be growth rate reduction to 40% in revs although absolute numbers would be the same. But what about the Get Deal addition. What are the Get revs and margins. Company said it would be neutral accretive for 2000 and they paid 250 mill in shares of stock so what are the new diluted shares out there with options etc. 88 mill? 90 mill? And what are new rev projectons after the GET deal plus previous growth rates.BHE paid about 285 mill for AVEX and got over 800 mill in revs? JBL's net margins have been 4.5%. For GET to be neurtral then GETs margins must be much less or the gross revs of GET must be much less then the AVEX/BHE deal it seems. And if you think JBL will grow at another 60% without GET then the revs and profits it seems will be much higher then estimates unless margins go down. And what about tax advantages of these foreign subsidiaries? Why is JBLs tax rate so high? I hope in September this info will be available and it could result in a large stock increase if 2000 projections are higher then current Anayalsts assumptions and the GET deal is bigger also? Bewildered. Anybody have info or opinions?

Rich
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