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Gold/Mining/Energy : Gold Price Monitor

GDXJ 127.15

+0.4%

Jan 15 4:00 PM EST

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To: Claude Cormier who wrote (39415)	8/22/1999 6:22:00 PM
From: goldsheet	Read Replies (2) of 116857

> You never said so true Bob... and that is why the deliveries from > this source reached 35M ounces last year. > The 20+ miilions ounces you refer to is backed by solid statistics > in the 1994-1997 period..but these years saw gold prices of $380- > 400 on average. We should bet that with the new gold prices of > $260, supplies from this source will shrink to the 10 millions > ounces per year average We are on the exact same page here. Although I mentioned the 1094mt/35moz number for 1998, it was indeed a one year aberration, suggesting we should, at a minimum, go back to the historical average (600mt/18moz), or even lower as you correctly suggest due to lower prices. Asians that sold gold last year are likely to be buying it back, moving them from the supply side of the equation over to the demand side. 10moz seems little low, I could go with 12-13moz, but the magnitude and direction of shrinking scrap supply is more important than either of us hitting the exact number.

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