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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates

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To: Jill who wrote (5069)8/22/1999 7:20:00 PM
From: Mike Buckley  Read Replies (1) of 54805
 
Jill,

I'm not sure about the exact question you're asking ...

I'm just wondering, is there any particular reason we are only comparing Q potential growth with Cisco rather than an average of gorillas? Is that just the particular random example, or is there a more specific reason?

If you're asking why we're comparing Cisco and Qualcomm, one reason is because we've got a definitive start of Cisco's tornado. That's documented reasonably well in the manual and is corroborated by Cha2's memory of his earliest days of investing in the networkers.

The really neat aspect about investing in Qualcomm is that we've got some data that helps us define the start of the tornado more easily than in most cases (my opinion). We've got the CDMA subscriber growth and the date the Ericsson deal was announced. Even though I'm applying the rather nebulous criteria the manual offers, it's somewhat of an arbitrary decision on my part to label the start of Qualcomm's tornado as April 1, 1998. For a review of that reasoning click on: Message 9128540

Another reason to compare Qualcomm with Cisco is because Cisco's product lines seem more comparable than others we might make. SAP and Oracle are definitely out of the question. Microsoft is in so many businesses that right now it might not be a valid comparison. On the other hand, as the Q's businesses develop it might end up looking more like Microsoft than all the others. (Wouldn't that thrill a lot of people around here?!) It could probably be argued that Intel is more comparable to Qualcomm than Cisco and that might be why George Gilder refers to Qualcomm as the Intel of wireless.

Personally, I see a lot of dynamics with any of the gorillas that are in some way reasonably comparable to Qualcomm. Perhaps the reason I chose to compare the stock's growth with Cisco's growth is because I was lazy and found it so easy to do.

Back to your original question about why we don't compare Qualcomm's stock to an average of gorillas. That's because of the laziness thing. It takes a lot more work determining the start dates of the various tornados and tracking the stocks. Perhaps you'd be interested in doing that? :)

--Mike Buckley
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