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Technology Stocks : Discuss Year 2000 Issues
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To: John Hunt who wrote (8282)8/23/1999 6:48:00 AM
From: John Hunt  Read Replies (1) of 9818
 
Portfolios: EM Debt Mgrs Take Ecuador In Stride But Y2K Looms

<< Others weren't so sure. "The market is remarkably holding, but I don't know for how long" said Fulvio Dobrich, fund manager at DePfa USA, New York "Ecuador is inconsequential in the overall scheme of things, but when one sets a precedent it starts concerning the market. People are going to be assessing whether they should be switching out of Latin America."

Ecuador's proposal to "defer" $94 million in Brady bond coupon payments due Aug. 31 comes just as the emerging debt market, like others, is beginning to focus seriously on the potential for systemic glitches when outmoded computer clocks tick over to the year 2000, he noted.

"There is this gorilla out there," Dobrich said. "There are too many uncertainties." There is a measure of confidence among investors that possible Y2K bugs are being weeded out in U.S. and other OECD data systems. But developing nations are "absolutely more vulnerable."

Even in the U.S., "people are not going to know the nature of the Y2K problem until October or November," Dobrich continued. "Some banks have told their leveraged clients that they will have to provide documentation that they are Y2K compliant" to keep credit lines.

"That shadow is still over the whole market," he concluded. "I don't see this (emerging debt market) going up much. I don't see the technical upside" for emerging markets debt. >>

... full article at ...

economeister.com

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