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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis

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Nov 26 4:00 PM EST

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To: TRINDY who wrote (23620)	8/23/1999 2:18:00 PM
From: TWICK	Read Replies (1) of 99985

Why would Mr. Greenshades mot raise the rate on more time in October ? I see no reason why Y2K concerns should stop him from doing that if he feels another tightening is necessary. And they are already worrying about what his next move may be: cbs.marketwatch.com Too early to tell right now IMO. I'm sure many of you are aware of the economic data that will come out this week and next. biz.yahoo.com I also wonder if the dollar is going to be in any better shape after the rate hike. Japan's recovery is still in its infancy stage, but it stands a good chance of getting stronger this year than most predict, leading to a higher trade deficit, a weaker dollar, and further exodus of foreign investors. I found the following commentary from Bob Brinker about the dollar and its affect on the market very sobering. Any thoughts, or opinions ? :10 Bob opened talking about having empathy for Fed chairman Greenspan. Along with all the other problems he has to worry about we now have a deterioration in the Dollar. The Dollar has been sliding since July and not much has been reported on this. We like to see a Strong or at least firm Dollar. This is a problem as a weak Dollar means foreign goods cost more and add to inflation at home. This affects Stock and Bond prices. In the last 4 years foreign buyer have purchased 150Billion in US treasuries annually. Recently foreigners are net sellers of Treasury Debt. This is a big deal as it gives the Fed a reason to raise rates. Bob says the things we need to see an up trend in the markets are 1. Slower economic growth 2. Lower rates 3. Reduced Inflation 4. A firm Dollar. Slower growth should help with the labor tightness. Bob thinks the fed chairman is not wearing a watermelon smile. Twick

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