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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials
AMAT 322.51+6.1%Feb 6 9:30 AM EST
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To: Gottfried who wrote (32214)8/23/1999 3:34:00 PM
From: Henry D  Read Replies (1) of 70976
 
Gottfried,

thanks for links. someone posted a graph a few days ago with AMAT price vs SEMI orders. back in Apr 95 to Oct 95, orders flattened then shot up for 4 to 5 months while AMAT price DROPPED during this reacceleration. do you think we will see the same pattern? even if new orders start to accelerate again next year, what's the say we dont have a repeat of 1996? i think the Street knows we are in an upcycle, there doesnt seem to be much upside surprise left.

also, psychologically, i think semi stock prices would drop if b2b dips below 1.0 even though compared to last year bookings are significantly up.

i am looking for a peak either in Oct 99 or Feb 2000. just my guess based on past performance.

luck to all
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