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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates

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To: chaz who wrote (5136)	8/23/1999 3:48:00 PM
From: John Stichnoth	Read Replies (1) of 54805

Chaz, RE Rambus: EPS for this and 4Q are based on long-standing contracts for development and supply (eg., Nintendo). We are nearing the hockey-stick in terms of DRDRAM use. Beginning in Sept, Sony will announce Playstation II, beginning the royalty stream 90 days later. Also in 4Q, box makers will begin shipping "rambus-inside" boxes, featuring the camino chipset. Again, royalty flow from these developments won't show up until 1Q'00. The outstanding questions are (1) timing of the camino chipset announcement--intel doesn't pre-announce, and rambus backers say there is a lot of fud out there that camino will be delayed and won't provide a performance edge when used with rambus. (2) how high the hockey stick will be. There is no argument that 2000 revenues will be sharply higher. The question is how quickly and broadly rambus will be included in boxes shipped and how fast in other applications (eg., cellphones). Near-quarter earnings are not the basis of rambus' stock price. The anticipated ramp-up is key. Best, JS

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