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Non-Tech : QQQ - Nasdaq 100 Trust

QQQ 608.86

+0.1%

Nov 14 4:00 PM EST

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To: M CAHILL who wrote ()	8/23/1999 5:45:00 PM
From: Matthew L. Jones	Read Replies (1) of 840

Where have all of the bears gone? I calculate that the odds favoring reversal on the QQQ or $NDX are 9.49 to 1. Here's why: The duration of this rally is 10 trading days (Aug 10) and the puts the odds of continuation at 1:1. The extent of this intermediate up trend is 12.55% from the interday low of 2120 on Aug 10. This puts the odds of reversal at 1.81:1. Finally, when you factor in the slope of this rally (absolute movement percentage over time) the odds of reversal jump to an astounding 25.67 to 1 favoring reversal. Averaging these three (extent, duration, and absolute movement) you get odds in favor of reversal of 9.49 to 1!! This is the actuarial equivalent of a 128 year old male in average condition. I wouldn't bet a lot in favor of continuation without a pause for a pullback of about 7%. Other technical concerns are the breaking of the upper bollinger band (bollinger bands statistically include over 99% of all trades), Stochastics sell signal, RSI over 60% on $NDX and the abnormally light volume in this temporarily overbought market. I wouldn't be surprised if we gapped up in the morning and began a sell off (sell the news) with the Fed announcement. Matt

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