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Pastimes : The Justa & Lars Honors Bob Brinker Investment Club
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To: Ian@SI who wrote (8031)8/23/1999 9:59:00 PM
From: JF Quinnelly  Read Replies (1) of 15132
 
The big test for Brinker's model will be to see if he gets his fans out before the next bear market bites them on the rump. Although his asset allocation model should reduce their risk all the same; Brinker teaches them more than simple market timing. So far he has a good record of identifying buy points in an ongoing bull market, but he hasn't had to warn of a bear yet. If he misses, and they ride the bear down, the mockery will be merciless.

It doesn't appear to me that Brinker's timing model could predict something like Dow 36,000 5 years out. It's really apples and oranges. Glassman is describing what he thinks is a flaw in the way that we currently value stocks, whereas Brinker is looking at indicators that have been predictive of market trends in the past. By its nature Brinker's model will have a shorter focus.

But I don't think Brinker could wring Dow 36,000 out of his model without converting to Glassman's theory that stocks are dramatically undervalued. Let's pump those p/e's!
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