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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates
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To: Mike Buckley who wrote (5216)8/23/1999 10:27:00 PM
From: Apollo  Read Replies (3) of 54805
 
Mike:

Do you (and others) agree that investing in Rambus now is investing too soon when using gorilla-game criteria? Rambus sells an enabling technology which is bought by purist gorilla gamers no sooner than the start of the tornado. As I see it, the product hasn't crossed the chasm but it will do that and enter the tornado very, very quickly.

Your thoughts?

I don't think it is too soon to invest in Rambus; have been accumulating since Jan/Feb of '99, with average price of $71. My thoughts are that it is a reasonable strategy for me to invest sizeably in embryonic gorillas before the chasm is crossed, since I have 15% of my total stake in Rambus; the purpose is to catch the original huge run-up. And Moore states in the first chapter that Gorilla Game strategy is expected to miss the initial run-ups. The purpose of the strategy, as you know, is to insure large gains at very low risk.

I started re-reading the Gorilla Game last night for the 2nd time, and will have to think about your question related to gorilla game criteria. What are the Gorilla Game criteria? There are the criteria of a gorilla; but the Gorilla Game criteria for investing may be different. Moore recommends investing in a basket of companies in a niche, because it may be hard to at first determine who the gorilla is or will be. What I don't remember is whether he says the basket should be of companies, all of which have crossed the chasm and have > 80% growth as seen in a tornado. Or can the basket be composed of companies that have not yet crossed the chasm?

Ball's back to you Merlin.

stan
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