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Non-Tech : Bill Wexler's Dog Pound
REFR 1.940-7.6%Nov 25 3:39 PM EST

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To: BDR who wrote (3216)8/24/1999 1:12:00 AM
From: Marconi  Read Replies (2) of 10293
 
Hello Mr. Russell: Internet stocks

Mr. Babb did a little shorting recently (he often is a little ahead in timing). Mr. Wexler still avoids them, but at some point I think he will be corruptible into shorting them.

I noticed today that in the last quarter or two it appears that several net stocks rattle in the Bollinger bands and with local highs and lows corresponding to high and low RSI. The moves are slow enough to track and if the corner is missed there still is enough on the table to make the trade worthwhile. My guess is that they are purely trading vehicles. I am considering shorting to a limited extent to test this out before some other trading pattern emerges.

It seems with the lockups expiring and the many IPO's that the insane pushes last year are running out of steam and it may be that beyond this current cyclical trading pattern, lower highs and lower lows may set in as the next phase. Someone else noted that bubbles seem to last several years, then collapse, and the Internet bubble is getting stale by that timescale. I no longer expect the bottom to fall out, or one of the major ones to open up at half of what it closed the previous day.

It remains ludicrous to me that Internet stocks are stated to be interest rate sensitive in the popular media. But that may be a dodge for explaining falling prices--fears of rates...as if the typical Internet stock holder ran daily discounted cash flow rates of returns with a new interest rate structure! My sense is that trading may have come back into the larger Internet stock issues, and phased declines may be the next stage of rationalization. And my guess is that this may be due to the stickiness of irrationality.
Best regards,
m
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