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Technology Stocks : The New Qualcomm - a S&P500 company

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To: puzzlecraft who wrote (1076)	8/24/1999 6:33:00 PM
From: Gregg Powers	Read Replies (3) of 13582

Guys...a couple of quick observations /1/ you are looking at percentage change rather than total dollars, i.e. if TDMA contracts went from $1.00 to $1.45 and CDMA contracts went from $1,000,000 to $880,000 then more CDMA is being deployed despite the percentage delta. /2/ cellular networks are lumpy. The 1997-1998 CDMA infrastructure comps incorporate the primary build-out of US PCS and Japan. To my knowledge, the current primary deployments in Mexico, Brazil and the rest of South America are not as large in scope and/or investment. So some of the issue is geographic timing. In addition, ATT has been forced to pour a lot of dollars into its network due to capacity constraints deriving from IS-136's (TDMA) comparatively poor yields...so gross infrastructure spending is not the best measure of the technology's marketplace success. /3/ infrastructure sales represent the razor; handset sales the razor blade. It would be perhaps be more illuminating to evaluate the relative growth rate, and absolute units, of handsets for the technologies. Best regards, Gregg

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