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Pastimes : Ask Mohan about the Market

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To: Naveen Kumar who wrote (17808)	8/24/1999 6:53:00 PM
From: Rational	Read Replies (2) of 18056

There was a lot of talk in this thread of a severe correction of the markets. I was one to caution sometime in 1997 that the market was not necessarily overpriced as the interest rates were low and deflationary pressures continued. I also had expected then that yen was poised to recover tremendously, despite the talk in some places of 200 yen per dollar. I had also argued for investing in India and the whole of Asia. How about now? Well, I see that Chinese are hell-bent to fulfill their pledge to punish America, not militarily (because they cannot), but economically. How? They will not devalue the yuan to achieve their goal. They will increase public sector wages (as per announcement), which will pressure country-wide wage increase in China. [Greenspan might be preempting the Chinese moves.] That will increase the cost of Chinese imports to the USA. This event alone is likely to burst the American asset bubble. The retail sector is down this year. There has to be some dramatic event and it is likely to be retail sector going down quite a bit with the consumer spending slowing considerably. I expect some correction in the capital market prices worldwide, but deeper in USA.

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