Some DD For from Raging Bull... (but Not mentioned is "POKEMAN the Movie", scheduled to be released after October on the Big screen, for Grinning KIDES!)
By: dwilder
Reply To: None Tuesday, 24 Aug 1999 at 7:15 PM EDT
Post # of 286
***NEW INVESTOR INFORMATION***
Grand Toys
1710 Route Transcanadienne
Dorval, Quebec H9P
---------------------CONTACT COMPANY--------------------
(514) 685-2180
grand.com
----------------------INVESTOR INFO---------------------
To receive additional information on Grand Toys International, Inc., via fax, at no charge, dial 1-800-PRO-INFO and enter code GRIN.
---------------MARKET CAP INFORMATION (8/24/99)----------
MarketCap $23M
Shares Issued 1.6M
Float Guess 300K or 900K or more
---------------------STARTER DD------------------------
(1) EXPLOSIVE LOW FLOAT: Only 300 to 930K Shares in the Float will make this stock VERY EXPLOSIVE on the Upside. Only 1.6M Shares Outstanding. (This follows 5:1 reverse split)(36% Owned by Management and 1.3% Institutional ownership.) Management has Options/Warrants which will double Shares Issued to around 3.0M. Tiny company with huge potential due to Exclusive Pokemon contract.
(2) VERY UNDERVALUED COMPANY: Very undervalued when compared to Hasbro, Mattel, ETYS, Toys'r'us, and KIDE. A 8/23 Pricing Model presented on the Raging Bull Message Board showed that to be equally priced to KIDE on a MarketCap basis GRIN is worth $207 and on a Price/Sales basis its worth $455. BOTH Hasbro and Mattel have Market Caps of about 2-2.5 times Sales. If GRIN would be so priced
$36-60/Share. Its likely GRIN will not attain some of these valuations but its unlikely that there won't be a closing of this valuation gap.
(3) CHRISTMAS SEASONALITY: Seasonal skews with 40% of Annual Sales coming during the 4Q and Spiking Stock Prices are directly ahead as we head into Fall. CHRISTMAS GIFTS, TOY SALES, and INCREASING SHARE PRICES ahead in preparation.
(4) TOY CUTTING EDGE: FURBY BABIES/ POKEMAN: EXCLUSIVE AGREEMENT to Sell both Toy Lines in CANADA. Both look like they will be HUGE. Any toy company which has the rights to
two of this year's hottest toy products will likely generate many dollars in Sales and the attention of investors. What most are hoping is GRIN can use Pokemon and Furby to springboard into a predictable earnings stream. Tough to do in the toy business.
(5) NEW FINANCING: On the strength of Pokemon and Furby Toy Products GRIN has secured a $17M Line of Credit from Mellon Bank which exceeds the Total Current Market Cap of GRIN which on 8/23/99 was $15M.
(6) BUSINESS CHALLENGE: GRIN needs to improve it can get back on top where they have been before. Earned .90¢Share on $37M. 8 3/4 High. In '98, (-$.51c) 4Q on lower revenues. Erratic Performance. The street is worried they can't stabilize sales and earnings.0M in revs from GRIN. 1999 SALE +49%! Record first-half earnings in '99.
(7) NORTH AMERICAN SALES PRESENCE: GRIN is the Major Distributor of Toys in Canada. Are expanding Sales into the United States. Some Licensing Agreements allow sales in BOTH Countries. Many EXCLUSIVE AGREEMENTS in Canada. —
Pokemon, Furbys, Marvel Comics Brand Toy, WWC Wrestling-type toys. All of these are fairly large sellers.
(8) 40 YEAR HISTORY: 40 year Track Record in the Toy Business. Company started
in 1961.
(9) NO LONG TERM DEBT: No long-term debt prior to current company initiatives.
(10) SURVIVORSHIP: In 1998, GRIN went through one of the
worst annual depreciations of the Canadian dollar in many years, yet they finished the year actually buying a small US toy manufacturer (ARK).
(11) PRODUCT LINEUP: Furby, Baby Furbies (plus its offshoots of babies, beanies and French-speaking), WCW, Majorette (Toy collectible/Exclusive Canadian Sales
Rights), Solido (Toy collectible/Exclusive Canadian Sales Rights), Jellabies, and Spiderman.
(12) NON-TOY BUSINESS DIVERSIFICATION: Diversifying into non-toy distribution (Grand Concepts) which went from nothing to about 10% of sales in 1998. This business will help them reduce the seasonality which is typical of the toy sector and also bring new growth.
(13) NEW MANUFACTURING FACILITY: New manufacturing capacity. ARK gives GRIN the ability to manufacture high profit margin foam toys and sell them not only in Canada
but market them in the US and beyond. I have high hopes for this new line, based on the success that the then-independent ARK experienced in 1998 with their parrot puzzles and their beautiful but expensive $100 foam model of the Titanic.
(Source Credit: Frank McVerry, SI Board, and various posters including PK from Yahoo. I have not contacted the company. Compiled from Indirect Sources)
--------------TECHNICAL ANALYSIS--------------------------
equities.barchart.com
GRAND TOYS INTL
Symbol: GRIN
Exchange: NASDAQ
Quick Links: [Quote] [Chart]
=========================08/24/99========================
Composite Indicators
Trend Spotter (tm) Buy
==================Short Term Indicators==================
7 Day Directional Indicators - Buy
10 - 8 Moving Average Hilo Channel - Buy
Price vs. 20 Day Moving Average - Buy
20 - 50 Day MACD Oscillator - Buy
20 Day Bollinger Bands - Buy
short term indicators average - 100% Buy
=================Medium Term Indicators==================
40 Day Commodity Channel Index - Buy
Price vs. 50 Day Moving Average - Buy
20 - 100 Day MACD Oscillator - Buy
50 Day Parabolic Time/Price - Buy
medium term indicators average - 100% Buy
=================Long Term Indicators====================
60 Day Commodity Channel Index - Buy
Price vs. 100 Day Moving Average - Buy
50 - 100 Day MACD Oscillator - Buy
long term indicators average - 100% Buy
======Overall Indicators Average - 100% Buy==============
YHOO percent gainers:http://finance.yahoo.com/a0?u keeping good company |
