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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis
SPY 679.70+0.7%Nov 26 4:00 PM EST

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To: pater tenebrarum who wrote (22929)8/25/1999 3:45:00 AM
From: Vitas  Read Replies (2) of 99985
 
Heinz, we now have the possibility of the 55 calendar day
"crash" pattern setup evolving imminently.

We have the triple declining summation slammation pattern,
which elongated into a quintuple pattern. It is within this loss of
momentum pattern that numerous substantial declines have evolved.
The day count from the a-d line peak is quite close to the '57 and
'87 patterns, in the 323 - 341 day range, and pinpoints this time
zone for trouble.

Given the fact that on the first leg down we only got to -75 versus
-103 in 1987 on the McClellan ratio oscillator, I would not expect a
crash per se, but serious trouble nonetheless.

One draw back is that the 17 day a-d oscillator, currently at .4596,
has not reached .5

However, today on a higher high in NYA and SPX there were
fewer new highs, 58 versus 77, and on a higher low there
were more new lows, 104 versus 76.

Now all we need is a little push.

07/16/99 1418.78 9.61 08/25/87 336.77 2.54
07/19/99 1407.65 -1.43 08/26/87 334.57 -6.70
07/20/99 1377.10 -21.51 08/27/87 331.38 -23.11
07/21/99 1379.29 -16.98 08/28/87 327.04 -47.41
07/22/99 1360.97 -27.07 08/31/87 329.80 -29.62
07/23/99 1356.94 -39.56 09/01/87 323.40 -50.55
07/26/99 1347.76 -51.57 09/02/87 321.68 -67.83
07/27/99 1362.84 -39.47 09/03/87 320.21 -70.12
07/28/99 1365.40 -37.26 09/04/87 316.70 -77.96
07/29/99 1341.03 -54.84 09/08/87 313.56 -102.76
07/30/99 1328.72 -44.83 09/09/87 313.92 -84.94
08/02/99 1328.05 -46.33 09/10/87 317.13 -52.85
08/03/99 1322.18 -50.96 09/11/87 321.98 -22.24
08/04/99 1305.33 -58.70 09/14/87 323.08 -15.38
08/05/99 1313.71 -58.33 09/15/87 317.74 -34.93
08/06/99 1300.29 -64.51 09/16/87 314.86 -44.72
08/09/99 1297.80 -62.84 09/17/87 314.93 -41.49
08/10/99 1281.43 -75.30 09/18/87 314.86 -39.22
08/11/99 1301.93 -49.18 09/21/87 310.54 -50.18
08/12/99 1298.16 -39.09 09/22/87 319.50 -25.10
08/13/99 1327.68 -15.55 09/23/87 321.19 -6.58
08/16/99 1330.77 -11.92 09/24/87 319.72 -6.27
08/17/99 1344.16 5.07 09/25/87 320.16 -6.34
08/18/99 1332.84 -2.12 09/28/87 323.20 10.02
08/19/99 1323.59 -2.48 09/29/87 321.69 1.31
08/20/99 1336.61 10.14 09/30/87 321.83 11.24
08/23/99 1360.22 19.84 10/01/87 327.33 28.11
08/24/99 1363.50 13.67 10/02/87 328.07 29.62
10/05/87 328.08 21.95
10/06/87 319.22 -9.07
10/07/87 318.54 -20.92
10/08/87 314.16 -40.52
10/09/87 311.07 -50.36
10/12/87 309.39 -66.78
10/13/87 314.52 -43.84
10/14/87 305.23 -67.45
10/15/87 298.08 -87.12
10/16/87 282.70 -114.66
10/19/87 224.84 -141.04
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