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Non-Tech : QQQ - Nasdaq 100 Trust

QQQ 608.86

+0.1%

Nov 14 4:00 PM EST

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To: Matthew L. Jones who wrote (98)	8/25/1999 5:35:00 AM
From: Lee Martin	Read Replies (1) of 840

Matt, It seems like it wants to retest its high around 123. I think it will fail for all the reasons you mentioned. What I want to know is what happened to "don't fight the fed"? The market is clearly fighting the fed now and I wonder how this has been resolved in the past. Does the fed always win? Has the fed ever gone to a tightening bias AFTER they have raised rates? It seems like they always go back to neutral and then if some bad data comes in they hike rates again while maintaining a neutral bias. So will the next piece of bad inflation news blow away the market's view of "no more rate hikes anytime soon"? If the fed is hiking rates with no inflation currently in the system because it wants to be premptive what is keeping it from continuing to do so? In other words, we've got low unemployment, some wage pressures, the world economy recovering, and a booming US stock market fueling consumer confidence and spending. I don't see these factors changing anytime soon and they are scaring the fed. What's to keep the fed from saying "yea we don't see any inflation now but all these factors that could lead to inflation aren't getting any better so we're gonna hike rates again just to be safe." They could continue hiking rates for a long time. Last question; When the fed has hiked rates twice has that ever been enough? In other words, has the second hike been the last hike and then the next move been to ease, or has the second hike been one of a series of hikes? I am totally confused by what's happening in the market now. I don't know if the current rally is a sucker rally ahead of the SEP earnings warning season (rising rates+tech stock warning= 50% haircut) or the start of a fall rally like we had during/after earnings season last OCT,NOV. Seems like it's too soon for a sustained rally but what do I know, I've been losing $ since mid APR, and have been 100% in cash for a while so I'm probably wrong. Regards, Lee

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