Here's a super post from RB... sounds "right on" to me.
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By: wayne777
Reply To: None Tuesday, 24 Aug 1999 at 11:58 PM EDT
Post # of 65857
EDIG and the music industry is complicated!!!!!!
In all emerging industries, there is a level of uncertainty amongst the buyers, sellers, and other players of how the music download industry is going to turn out.
At this point in the game (August '99). The structural environment of this new music industry contains alot of technological uncertainty and strategic uncertainty. The problems we've encountered with SDMI are natural and normal in an evironment where timelines are short and problems are dealt with expediently.
With a structural environment of this nature, EDIG benefits by having experience and proprietary technology (patent protected) which, in turn, offers OEMs a cost advantage. Given the fact that technological and competitive uncertainties do exist in the digital download music industry, EDIG's offerings become even more significant.
The percieved slow pace of SDMI and Lucent will actually work to our advantage in the future. SDMI, knowing fully that customer confusion will poliferate the market if 50 different products and standards entered, tackled perhaps one of the biggest limiting factors on an emerging industry: product standardization.
Lucent is doing us, the investors, a favor by taking a precision guided strategic stance towards this new market. Lucent from the start has acted in a leadership role, first with in SDMI, and in offering a solid codec.
Now, Lucent must carefully guide the hands of OEMs into the market by pitching to them a technology that will minimize their potential introduction or switching costs, cost of product failure, cost of obsolescence; AND, convince them that entering the market early is to their benefit. This is by any means a small task. Lucent and its partners must have everything in order if they want the OEMs to enter. Lucent's awesome reputation in technology, the performance advantage of EPAC and the LU/TI/EDIG/SNDK player, and the absolute benefit of gaining customer loyalty first are clear enough reasons why OEMs will want to enter this industry at its earliest point and have product out by christmas.
Strategic uncertainty plays into the hands of Lucent and its partners. Without knowing how the market will be structured, future competitors are spinning their wheels trying to figure out how to make a buck in this market. At this point, secrecy is CRUCIAL. Please, everyone, if you think everything I'm saying is b*llsh*t, please remember that no news at this point is the best news we can get. The 'no news' stance is exactly what LU/EDIG should be doing right now. If there was trouble, PRs would probably fly out everywhere in order to distract investors away from problems.
Lucent's goal is not to just merely be a first entrant into the market. Facts prove that they want to revolutionize this market with EPAC, or PAC for digital radio. Lucent wants digital music to be the STANDARD in home and car audio systems. Lucent is not just about making money, they want to revolutionize!
If Lucent/IBM/SNDK/EDIG/TI/LQID build it, they will come.
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