Ed, the past has a lot to do with everything. Some people demonstrate a proven ability to innovate, to lead, to prosper. I have been fortunate enough to own Berkshire for many many years, all based on the kind of person Warren Buffett has demonstrated that he is. The past year has been one of the worst ever for Berkshire (relative to the S&P), but I wouldn't think of selling based on what the stock has done over the past year. Long term, I'm interested in what the *company* is doing, as opposed to the stock. And that's why I like Dell so much. Call me naive on that, but much of that comes down to faith. I've also been unfortunate enough to own companies whose leaders talk a fine game, who "play" the Street like a finely tuned violin, and who, it turns out, were losers and liars. Mike Dell isn't one of those.
I don't have much wisdom to offer you, but I think that a ridiculously strong balance sheet such as Dell's coupled with a flat stock price over six months is more indicative of the vagaries of the Street than that anything is wrong in Austin. *Long-term*, that counts for more than "talking up" the analysts who seem to have such sway over how the big bucks get deployed. In the end--the only metric I care about--Dell's superior model and earnings will win out. It's that simple. If it takes Wall Street a while to cotton on, I consider it a gift to load the truck while I can. I'm a patient sort--I don't mind waiting (unless I've got short-term options, which I sometimes do, but never anything too significant).
*Today* the market perceives the dogway as a better investment going forward. We will see what the market thinks in six months, or a year. Meanwhile, back in June, in the mid-to-low 30s, I was buying just about every leap offered past 2001, and selling a few other things to buy more common.
I want Mike Dell concentrating on the business. The stock will take care of itself--it always does.
And about cheesesteaks, you can only dream about them till you've tried MINE brother.
Ciao,
Yamakita |
