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Technology Stocks : Wind River going up, up, up!
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To: pat pasquale who wrote (6184)8/25/1999 11:23:00 AM
From: Logain Ablar  Read Replies (2) of 10309
 
Hi Pat:

Responding to your message on I20.

Alan Benn would be the one to explain I20 and NIGO better than I but Peter and Mark and the rest of the thread can critique my comments and correct any misrepresentations.

My opinion / comments. WIND receives royalty on I20. The stock ran to $48 presplit in anticipation of these royalties starting to kick in in the 4th quarter. When that didn't happen (with the resulting decreased growth in revenue) the stock tanked. For those who listened to the Y/E conference call (after the january swoon) Ron indicated 40% growth for this year. That didn't pan out (look at the growth).

I20 has been continusly pushed back (no fault of wind just the market place) but when it ramps it will be a major revenue driver for WIND. The NGIO (IBM, HP etc.) standard has slowed acceptance of I20 (INTC, MSFT, etc.). Now with a merger of the two standards (and I20 is winning on this) WIND (and all consumers) is a major beneficiary. This can start to push revenue growth back to the 30's from the drop into the 20's.

This is one of the 3 major reasons I sold my shares (great company doesn't always mean great stock).

The other reasons.
2) Management turmoil. The last minute cancellation of the developer conference, push back of product launches, Ron's retirement.

3) The company needs a new (outside) President that can lead the company. I have no clue as to why Ron was not able to continue to do this (he had done a good job in the past). I can only surmise (my guess only) is that he had conflicts with the chairman.

Jerry can stay on but he needs to have a strong #2. The company, employees (no one likes a decreasing stock price) and shareholders need this to take the company to the next level. Selling the company may be a better alternative than growing internally and by acquisition. time will tell.

Just my long winded opinion.

I'll either buy in @ 12 (bargain) or 20 (I haven't checked a chart on this but it means the stock trend has changed).

Tim





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