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Brian, yes, I do think ICGE is getting way ahead of itself on a fundamental basis. A mkt value now 3.75 X that of SFE. $7.5 Billion rolls off the tongue easily, but to restate the obvious, thats one $million... 7,500 X over. That sir, is a lot of bright future discounted in the present price. It can only be justified IMO if one uses a qualifier, like " $7.5 B. mkt cap., which isn't so bad compared to ..." then finish the sentence by comparing it to some other internet stock. Problem is that the comparison stock has an absurd valuation also. That said....ICGE is running on supply/demand. The early flippers are out. A lot of long term holders are left owning the float. The float is very small. B to B E-commerce is hot in investors minds. There are limited stocks to play future B to B. Current buyers are trying to buy from a limited supply of sellers, many of which are long term oriented, so it takes some pretty high prices to pry loose enough stock to meet demand. Thus, here we are at $61. It does not have enough trading history to determine where suppply and demand are more evenly balanced. I would guess we are close, but who knows, ICGE is creating its own history and trading pattern now. A lot of todays buyers just want in B to B, and are not concerned about valuation. Could be they will still not be concerned at $80. I don't really know where the short term peak will be. I think a lot of current holders are like me. They didn't get an overwhelming # of shares on the IPO, and despite feeling it may be overvalued, plan to hold long term and are not selling. Very limited "real" float, means buyers have to pay up if they want in bad enough. This small float is going to create some real volatility both ways. Mike |
