Bill Wexler's Dog Pound Message Board

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Non-Tech : Bill Wexler's Dog Pound

REFR 1.560

-2.5%

Nov 7 9:30 AM EST

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To: Bill Wexler who wrote (3224)	8/25/1999 9:53:00 PM
From: Bill Wexler	Read Replies (3) of 10293

Wexler WRONG about IDTC... My thinking now.. 1) Can't go long NTOP. 2) Can't short NTOP (unless you can piss with the big dogs, in which case you'll make a lot of money down the road). 3) I underestimated the amount of positive sentiment behind NTOP. 4) I was using IDTC as a proxy to short NTOP, and small investors were (and continue) to use IDTC to long NTOP. 5) Market went bullish-ballistic far faster than I imagined. Conclusion. IDTC is crap, but positive sentiment overwhelms the disturbing details about the company so much that we are stuck in "never short a net stock on overvaluation alone" mode. In other words, I think small investors won't even bother worrying about IDT's core business this point. Right thing to do: if the market carries up non-net frauds (GUMM, REFR, VLNC, IDX etc.) it is safe to "average up". Wrong thing to do: average up on overvalued net stocks and IDTC. There will come a time when the net stock facade drops and it will be a dead lock short (in the tradition of DBCC/MKTW). In the short term it's better to simply stay away.

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