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Politics : Formerly About Advanced Micro Devices
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To: Charles R who wrote (69908)8/25/1999 11:48:00 PM
From: kash johal  Read Replies (1) of 1572099
 
Charles,

Re:"Intel turning from gorilla into a dog"

I totally disagree, Intel is still the gorilla in this game.

AMD will ship many fewer processors in 2H 99 vs 2H 98.
Cyrix will ship negligible processors in 2H 99 vs 2H 98.

Their segmentation ploy has worked remarkabley well.

Assuming the follwoing volumes and splits:

12M Celerons at $75 ASP = $1Bn in sales.
12MIII's at $300 ASP = $3.6Bn in sales.
1.5M Xeons at $1000 ASP = $1.5Bn in sales.
Misc Flash/chipsets etc = $1.5Bn in sales.

I can see that they may well have blow out numbers.
I see flash roaring ahead.
I see Xeons up 50% in volume from last year with no imminent pricing pressure till Q1 2000.

And note 25.5M units/qtr is probably low.
Even if you drop the celeron pricing by HALF to $35/chip you still see no major erosion of margins.

I tend to agree with some of your comments on Intels strategic blunders re: RDRAM and Merced and camino and Graphics cards but the overall management is so good they will probably turn a disaster into a strategic weapon ala Celeron.

But AMD and Cyrix and IDT and Rise's performance is so ABYSMAL that Intel faces only 1 major competitor - AMD.

In addition Compaq has flubbed Alpha and PowerPc is nowhere in sight very much.

I see great potential for AMD to become a solid number 2 player in the CPU biz but all this stuff on the imminent demise of Intel is surely misplaced.

regards,

Kash
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