Dan, et al:
I've been a bit busy and had pushed updating the GMI/POG ratio to the bottom of the list but I notice that there has been a lot of discussion concerning the POG/XAU ratio on the Dutch Bank thread. Since our GMI/POG ratio is viewed by some as more informative, I thought I should get me act together.
On 8/05, the Barron's GMI was 336.35, up slightly from the previous week's 334.96. With the POG up slightly to 255.75 (8/06), the ratio was essentially unchanged at 1.315.
On 8/12, the Barron's GMI was 352.30, up from the previous week's 336.35. With the POG up to 260.45 (8/06), the ratio was 1.35, up significantly.
On 8/19, the Barron's GMI was 338.82, down from the previous week's 352.30. With the POG down slightly to 258.25 (8/20), the ratio was 1.31, back to where it was two weeks previous. A year earlier the ratio was 1.166.
I noted in my last update that, as has been the case for most of the past year, based on the data referenced in post 10, the ratio continues in the range of values that strongly suggests the XAU will be substantially higher within a year. However, the fact that the ratio has been in this range for more than a year suggests that the data referenced in post 10 isn't adequate statistically and/or that we are experiencing a very unusual period. I should also note that this ratio has not moved nearly as much as the POG/XAU ratio and probably reflects more accurately the market conditions.
Cheers,
Larry |
