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Technology Stocks : LAST MILE TECHNOLOGIES - Let's Discuss Them Here
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To: MikeM54321 who wrote (4737)8/26/1999 5:22:00 PM
From: MikeM54321   of 12823
 
Re: @Home / AT&T Cable Modem Stats

Thread,
I linked this to my previous post from Jupiter Communications stats (post 4737). And what follows is an excerpt cut from the @Home (sym:ATHM) thread here on SI. Obviously if Mary Meekers predictions of ATHM subscribers are correct, the Jupiter figure is quite low for 1999 cable modem subscribers.

Jupiter says that there will be a total of 1,200,000 cable modem subscribers. Mary Meekers say @home alone with have 1,100,000 (but it does include international). My guess is the 1999 Jupiter figure is on the low side.

Also I thought it was interesting that she mentioned the aggressiveness of the AT&T broadband rollout after her meeting with Excite@home executives on July 29th.

There was an article in Bloomberg today about AT&T's upgrades to TCI network. It implied they were going to spend $12 billion in 1999(!) for upgrading the TCI coaxial plant. I thought this figure was a little on the high side. Maybe not if Mary Meeker's statement about T's aggressiveness is accurate.
MikeM(From Florida)

**************************

Mary Meeker

Date: 8/25/99

@Home is alive and well. Following the company's recent meeting with analysts on July 29th, we remain convinced that the company will meet or exceed its near term financial targets and its long term strategic objectives. Management's confidence in its financial progress and long term strategy direction is robust. We will be hosting a series of meetings with investors in September.

Total subscribers, including international subscribers, should reach 1.1 million at the end of 1999 and over 2.7 million at the end of 2000. Historically, the primary risk embedded in residential subscriber targets has been the installation capacity of the MSO affiliates.

AT&T's more aggressive commitment, announced at the analyst meeting, will more than overwhelm any shortfalls of the other MSO's. Also, the risk of slippage at the existing MSO's declines each year as the installation process is perfected.

In addition, the @Work rollout continues to accelerate with $43MM and $94MM of expected revenue in 1999 and 2000. Several of the MSO's have begun to discover the commercial market.
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