Hi Rob:
I am trying again to analyze PCMS's prospects.
The short interest jumped to 6.3 millions shares short.
The balance sheet of PCMS looks like a mess. Yet,
when one looks at NTRO, the current PCMS price looks
very low if PCMS is successful in rolling out its
P-MP equipment.
One element contributing to the current pessimism
has been the hype surrounding the 100Mbp/sec
wireless fast Ethernet system developed by Triton Systems
and rolled out by ARTT. This system works by connecting
high capacity P-P links in a ring, so it is similar
to a LAN, but without wires. Other equipment
manufacturers are also selling OC3 P-P links intended
to set up similar ring architectures.
I am skeptical of these solutions, since they
are expensive, thus losing the cost advantage of
wireless deployments. If a building needs an OC3, it
might be better served by fiber. For small buildings,
P-MP remains the preferred solution, IMO.
I am still on the sidelines, and I am struggling to
determine whether the current low price is a buying
opportunity or a sucker trap. Any thoughts?
Best regards,
Bernard Levy |
