SNDK at $170.
How realistic is that? If one has 8 months to a year to wait, I think it is not only possible but highly probable. Today's move from $94 to $85, while not what I would have wished for, is lemonade from lemons: a buying opportunity for those who have been on the sidelines wishing to get in. So $85 to $170 is their doubling opportunity, and a very good bet at that, considering the sales that will transpire between now and the end of 1Q 2000.
Now, maybe there will be even a better opportunity to get in tomorrow, or a week from tomorrow or a month from tomorrow. But getting in and holding, while expensive these days, is far less painful than watching the train roll on and on, knowing you're not on board. I'm reminded of an article 3-4 years ago, about the Motley Fool (in their heyday) entitled "Buying High And Selling Higher". The point was, while everyone dreams of finding that one stock they can get in at at $5 and sell at $95, the chances of your doing so are 1 in 1000. So..why not buy a stock that has been highly valued if the REASON it has been so valued is a damn good one? Momentum inspired by results and opportunity (as opposed to hype) is a reason to invest. So, your gains are "only" 50% or 75% or 100% while the charter members are seeing 15 baggers...so what? Turning a high-double-digit return in less than a year sure beats T-bills.
I would not be shy to recommend $85 as an entry point for someone new to SanDisk, provided they had up to a year's time to wait. Seeing $170 at the end of that year is where all the arrows are pointing, seeing something less than $85 would take an incredibly unlikely chain of wholly unforeseen circumstances.
I'm bullish, and strongly considering accumulation.
- Don |
