Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services Message Board

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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services

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To: JoeDi1213 who wrote (49953)	8/27/1999 10:34:00 AM
From: SliderOnTheBlack	Read Replies (1) of 95453

<I don't think a boom in Nat Gas is priced into the small caps like TMR, RRC, MEXP > BINGO ! ....exactamundo.... a quick scan of analyst models & reports shows for example - RRC 2000E based upon merely market prices of $17.00 WTI & $2.40 mcf Nat Gas.... These figures supporting a $10 target price - RRC can hedge forward production entirelly above these figures if they wished to.... 1999 E upon $16.54 WTI and $2.10 mcf Nat Gas for market prices..... (Range realizes slightly higher Gas prices in the Apalachian market - est @ $2.25 for the remainder of 1999 and $2.60 for 2000)... With domestic storage now in the 315 M boe range - we are virtually assured a trading band for crude above $17 - with $18-$20 virtually guaranteed into Q3 2000. With Nat Gas - point well taken about looking at lower figures to have to beat in the coming 2 weeks - bottomline is we still do not have enough rigs drilling going into Q3 to surpass 1998 supply build. The ''strong'' potential for not just $2.75-$3.25 mcf Gas exists - but also for at least a quarter+ of a nat gas crunch & ''rationing by price'' ... This factor not being a reason particularly to ''buy'' the sector - but that windfall could allow these companies to significantly reduce debt, or to step up cap ex spending.... The bottomline is that all the Analyst Models & Estimates for both 1999 & 2000 are based upon realized commodity prices well below present prices - and are a very low bar looking forward. The upside potential for upgrades & upwardly revised price targets for both Big Oil & the Independant E&P's is STRONGLY OPTIMISTIC ! In Q3 - virtually every analyst is predicting that the Major Oils will exceed analyst estimates by an average of 20% accross the board.... this will set the next major leg of the Oil run in place as long as OPEC does nothing stupid this September... It may also be what the beancounters need to see to open up the Cap Ex spending pursestrings - finally... We have ''doubles'' still left in the small caps - and we ONLY need to realize $17 ish crude & $2.40 Gas to get there.... Look at the upside left in the stronger, more recognized mid cap names like XTO & OEI. Both of these stocks have 50% left in them here - just in returning to the highs of last Fall - (their 52 week highs).

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