>>an estimate of $600M/year for ilo is very reasonable, and a decent rate of penetration could be expected. 25% of that is TTP's.<<
Hmmm. 25% = $150 million, as a royalty flowing right to the TTP bottom line. Well now.
Current shares outstanding 15.4 million; add 1.2 million for the S-8 you mention and 6.1 million from exercise of the outstanding warrants, and add 2 million (a guess - the 10-K on Edgar oddly doesn't have this and I don't have the hard copy annual report handy) for employee options; this adds up to 24.7 million shares.
$150 million divided by 24.7 million = $6.07/share for Zomaril/iloperidone alone (not counting anything for Pivanex, any of the cancer vaccine programs, etc.).
Gee, put a PE of 35 on $6.07, and you can imagine a stock price of about $210, a 25-bagger from here. If this is five years out and you discount at 50%, you get a present value of about $27.60/share. If you discount at 40% (high, but not so super-high risk), the PV is about $39/share. All higher if you assume a higher PE, and/or you use a lower discount rate.
Or: Assume some R&D expense on the other programs, and some SG&A, call this (arbitrarily) $40 million, leaving net of $110 million, or $4.45/share. etc.
Just some idle arithmetic, applied to some possibly not-so-idle dreaming on a pleasant afternoon.
Again, thanks Rick, MZ, et al. (I'm hanging on to my TTP warrants, bought mid-January at average cost about 5/8, for a while yet, for the reasons outlined above.)
-- RCM |
