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Technology Stocks : How high will Microsoft fly?
MSFT 486.98-1.4%Nov 19 3:59 PM EST

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To: d[-_-]b who wrote (28804)8/27/1999 6:07:00 PM
From: johnd  Read Replies (3) of 74651
 
AG is I think is reasonable. He is rightfully worried about
valuations.

Dow started year at 9189. Back then it was richly priced.
During the last 8 months, earnings have gone up for the
dow stocks by about 8%. Everything else being equal the
dow should be around 9900 purely based on earnings and
98 year-end reference.

But the dow has actullay gone up thrice that much. In an
environment, where interest rates are higher by 1%. So
the really should be at around 9300 - 9400.

Abby Cohen said at year beginning that 9800 should be
a good year end 99 target. Wall street keeps getting
so optimistic, it runs way ahead of earnings.

Individuals are margined to death. Savings rates are
at record low in history. Credit card borrowings are
at record levels.

Most stocks are in a parabolic mode. I wouldn't be
surprised September or October bring severe downturns.
In fact for long termers, it may be good to have such
a correction.
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