Sorry to answer for Bo, but I am sure he will chime in when he sees your message.
Your statement that "The current price is only justifiable if GUMM hits a home run with Zicam" is so off base for someone who is supposedly familiar with the company I just can't let it sit for long.
First of all, realize that GUMM would have been profitable last quarter with only $98,000 in Zicam sales had it not been for their charge in getting the MicroDent rights for their dental gums.
Secondly, GUMM's priority this year, according to the CEO, is to develop a partnership, to distribute nicotine gum both internationally and nationally. This growing market is more than several hundred million per year at this point and is waiting to be tapped by someone with production and distribution. GUMM has the production capability and distribution will not be a problem with the right partner. What about developing the product? Let me tell you that they have it. How do I know? I took a tour of their labs and saw at least 3 different batches of it. In addition, they are dedicating a whole production line to it. So, they are gearing up for it - right now they operate at about 10& capacity.
They have dental gum profitable contracts in Israel with PharmaGreen that are doing very well. They just became certified Kosher, so this will likely more than double their distribution/sales/profit (more because of margins, actually). How big a market is Israel? Do a bit of research and ask yourself the same question in relation to GUMM's size, float, and previous figures with those contracts...
Now, Zicam. How possible is a home run? Well, I have seen the figure of 5% likelihood bantered about by someone who claims to know a good deal about business(you, Mad2). You may know something about some businesses, but you are clueless about this one. You know nothing about who is doing the clinical testing. For all the libelous crap that went on in Wexler's thread, nobody was smart enough to read the NEJM guidelines for authors. Most papers that are rejected by the NEJM are done so within 6 weeks. The Zicam initial study has been there for several months and has not been rejected, at least as of the shareholder meeting about 2 weeks ago. What does that mean? It means that there is a decent chance that it will be published, in my opinion. The distribution channels are in place and publicity/distribution/advertising are all set to "gel" together by October. The company has stated that distribution is not a problem. The company has stated that production is not a problem. Some of the early large customers have ordered multiple times without much or any advertising.
The ad and PR people that have been hired are some of the best in the business. GUMM/GelTEch is giving Zicam their best shot this year. The product works and the two clinical studies, if they support the company claims (we only have a hint of the first results at present and p<0.001 that it works), should be published this cold season. The folks who post the NEJM contents weekly to gleefully show that there is no Zicam article have likely not published any medical papers because I can tell you, as someone who has, waits like this one are not uncommon for papers that end up being published.
So, I wager that there is an 85% chance that Zicam will be not just a success, but a huge success based on the fact that it works, that distribution and production are in place and that PR will begin very shortly, and GUMM will end up not paying for a lot of their initial PR>
And that is just Zicam. I will let someone else post more about nicotine gum, but company knows it has a winner and they now have their administrative goals set in a way to make the company profitable. Just like in financing where they refused several deals that were not in the best interests of the company, the same is true for nic gum. People want the product. Do some research.
I have to say I am surprised at some of your posts. Every time I think you "get it", you end up posting something that is a bit "out there". It is clear that the current price has built into it forward -looking valuation. But, that is what the market does. The statement that you made about the current price hinging on only the success (not just success, but a "home run") of Zicam really ignores what has been going on with the company, what has been posted about the status of the company's current contracts, and all the data that Dan has presented in very organized posts.
Well, now that my fingers have had a typing workout, it is time for a jog.
Regards,
Howard |
