Dutch Central Bank Sale Announcement Imminent? Message Board

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Politics : Dutch Central Bank Sale Announcement Imminent?

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To: sea_urchin who wrote (7463)	8/28/1999 12:34:00 PM
From: m.philli	Read Replies (2) of 81256

Morning Searle, I don't know if anyone has ever done technical work on a graph for forward selling and shorting on a monthly basis. What I'd be interested in seeing, is whether a graph of this type would show a corresponding increase in these positions in a ratio that follows the news releases expounding the supposed increase in reserves of Bre-ex in Indonesia! It seems to me that if the producers and fund analysts were on the ball, this huge mine and the production it would bring to market, would have indicated to them that the market may become oversupplied and prices would fall. Therefore, it would have been prudent of them to lock in forward prices. If these positions "were" taken in anticipation of this, a graph would show it. If I read it right the price of Gold fell "AFTER "the Bre-ex blowup, it would seem that the price of Gold should have risen with the elimination of this massive supply 'NOT HITTING THE MARKET IN THE FUTURE", but just the opposite happened and the price of gold started to fall "after" . This makes me wonder if, the producers and shorters having ALREADY TAKEN THEIR POSITIONS" , would have to make a decision whether to reverse their positions or add to them to balance out the anticipated rise in gold due to this future reduced supply. Has anyone ever seen any indication that Bre-ex was the catalyst? Does anyone think this was just a matter of producers and shorters flipping the coin at this stage of the game and they decided to support the positions already established rather than reverse course. If so, it may have just got out of hand and feeding on itself, is coming close to destroying the entire industry. Comments? just would like to clear up that question to my satisfaction, it has been taking up ram in my brain and I don't have many bites to spare> thanks -mike

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