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Pastimes : The Justa & Lars Honors Bob Brinker Investment Club
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To: marc ultra who wrote (8189)8/28/1999 9:12:00 PM
From: E_K_S  Read Replies (2) of 15132
 
Hi Marc - I believe Bob is close to making his call. He stated in his monolog that the M2 money supply has been shrinking since August. He said that the current 6% growth was now at a 2% growth level. Is M2 still really a good measure? Maybe M3 or some other measure of money growth would be a better indicator. If M2 really is shrinking, this is another input into Bob's model that will flag the Bear.

Do you know what the S&P PE was in 1976 when the high was reached Before the bear. IMO a 26% decline is small....a true BEAR may bring in much more. I believe Bob stated that when his model flags a Bear, it expects a possible 5% high but 20% decline, a 1:4 risk ratio.

A 31% decline in the DOW from our current levels would bring in a DOW of 7,500. I believe this is where Eliane Garzareli brought in her 2nd Sell signal. Her first sell signal was at Dow 5000 <Gr>.

EKS
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