The Justa & Lars Honors Bob Brinker Investment Club Message Board

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Pastimes : The Justa & Lars Honors Bob Brinker Investment Club

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To: E_K_S who wrote (8190)	8/28/1999 11:23:00 PM
From: marc ultra	Read Replies (2) of 15132

Eric re<<<<a 26% decline is small....a true BEAR may bring in much more.>>>> Well a 26% loss over 14 weeks I'm sure is no picnic especially when you don't have a clue how much worse it might get. With all the complacency around people may first start to get very frightened when we break through 20% which would exceed the correction last year. A combination of buying the dips failing and the baby boomers "in for the long run" many over allocated in equities could start some panic selling if we approach and break 30% as their theories brainwashed in that the market has to go up because the boomers have to save for retirement start to evaporate. If Greenspan's concerns about the increased effect of the market on the economy prove warranted the possibility of recession creeping out from a combination of delayed reaction to Fed tightening along now with a reverse wealth effect could give a bear then the chance of being quite ugly. Since these factors would be difficult if not impossible to quantitate in advance being on the sidelines would be the only safe place to be Marc

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