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Pastimes : The Justa & Lars Honors Bob Brinker Investment Club
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To: Sojourner Smith who wrote (8193)8/29/1999 12:50:00 AM
From: marc ultra  Read Replies (1) of 15132
 
Sojourner re<<<<


I listen to the Bob Brinker show but I am a full-time short-term trader that has done very well with Inet stocks.
I am trying see how a real bear market could happen.
Hard to imagine people pulling their money out of the market.
The only way I can see it happening is if their is a major
collapse of foreign markets, or a chemical, nuclear, biological war starts.
Is this really possible?>>>>

Maybe it's a bit hard for you to imagine a bear because we've been going through the greatest bull market in US history. Don't know why you would think we have to have some cataclysmic event to have a bear. The current situation is the type that bear markets often develop from. Economic growth becomes unsustainably fast and worries about inflation causes the Fed to tighten in an attempt to slow things down where they hope they can reach a soft landing where the economy is slowed enough to stamp out incipient inflation but remain strong enough to avoid recession. Occasionally they succeed, often they don't and either inflation gets out of hand or they misjudge and throw the economy into recession. If inflation starts getting out of hand long rates soar and the Fed has to slam rather than tap the brakes and eventually with a vigilant Fed like we have now they throw the economy into recession anyway if needed to control inflation. Due to many favorable mega-trends we have been able to get away with unusual prosperity without inflation for a long time now but what a person does not want to do is mistake prosperity and market profits during a rare great bull market with brilliance and permanence when a great bull may be about to turn into a bear.

Marc
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