Enlighten You? As a man of the Enlightenment, I adhere to the principle that each individual should enlighten themselves through the use of their own reasoning and critical thinking skills.
I am Socratic by nature. I view each individual as its own center, with the entire world centering around the individual because the individual's self-consciousness is a knowledge of Truth. I define Truth in the Greek sense of " unconcealedness."
From this standpoint, every point of departure in time is eo ipso accidental, an occasion, a vanishing moment. The teacher himself is no more than this; and if he offers himself and his instruction on any other basis, he does not give but takes away, and is not even the other's friend, much less his teacher. No human being, including my wife and 3 sons who I cherish, can be more to me than an occasion; for the underlying principle of all questioning is that the one who is asked must have the Truth in himself, and be able to acquire it by himself.
Now that you understand my Socratic Humanistic Orientation, I'll express a few of my own thoughts which I hope you take as an occasion for yourself. The labor market is extremely tight. Many people are now working who don't particularly want to work. Is this one reason why productivity was so low last quarter? Hourly earnings are also on the rise. With the unemployment rate so low, many companies have to raise the ante to get quality people to work for them. To be sure, stock options are used to attract people to work for the nifty 50 companies like MSFT. However, more stocks are declining than advancing, so this option is not attractive for many people.
The ballooning trade deficit is not bullish for the Dollar. It is Bearish. Why do you assume that foreigners will continue to support the dollar here? If the dollar continues to decline and the yield on the long bond continues to rise, foreigners will buy gold rather than US Treasuries. The US Market is becoming increasingly unattractive to foreigners. They are looking to reduce their holdings,
not increase them. Moreover, we do have great inflation right now. Look at the prices paid in the NAPM. By the time it reaches the CPI, it's too late. Also, look at the ECI. Look at the US Stock Market!
I don't view the Internet as a great deflationary force. Most companies, outside of the Dells, etc; haven't made a dime through their Internet operations. Amazon, IMO, won't ever make a penny. Barnes&Noble will destroy them. The big deflationary force is, of course, technology. Just look at how much the price of a PC falls each year. Soon, they will be giving them all away for a 3 year commitment for Internet Access. So, maybe your right here.
There is also the Y2K factor, which hardly anyone takes seriously, but IMO is going to become a major major problem. To be sure, many small and mid cap companies are selling for 6 times earnings. But they possess a lot of debt. This is why many of them have taken a nice haircut lately. TEX comes to mind here. |
