For your education, another post by JA
Subject: Re: Lots of Old Names
Date: Sat, 28 August 1999 09:54 PM EDT
From: JArena3773
Message-id: <19990828215430.26089.00001224@ng-fa1.aol.com>
>Still.......occasionally, it does pay off to invest in a new company at the
>two-three year point.
"Yes, it does, about 2 times in 100. No one is smart enough to be able to identify the next intc or msft 2-3 years into a company's life. The risk reward ratio of trying to successfully execute this strategy long term is atrocious. Sucessful investors wait for a company to achieve leadership in an industry, critical mass, economies of scale, and consistent earnings growth of at least 20% for 5 years before they make a major commitment to the stock.
Certainly this strategy is not as exciting as buying high flying start up companies whose stock price can skyrocket up 20 points in one day. However, many savvy investors shun diversification and concentrate their assets in the top quality companies to compensate for the law of large numbers that such companies eventually run into. This theory has really come into vogue on Wall St. during the past few years, and is one of the reasons why the large
cap stocks have and will continue to outperform. It is also why the talking heads who have been spewing out rhetoric about the impending resurgence of small caps/value stocks have been dead wrong. It is all about earnings growth, and the small caps and value stocks simply do not have the ability to generate the consistent 20% earnings growth that many large cap companies do. Also, remember that if small cap companies are able to generate stellar
earnings growth consistently, they do not remain small caps for long. It is at this juncture when smart investors take a position in them.
Joe Arena"
So boys and girls, as Joe says it might be better to invest in a company that earns money than one that hopes to earn money someday. Anything else is just throwing your money on the gambling table.
Gordon |
