dan3 - <Just to put it all in perspective, $2 billion in profits with 150 million shares out at a P/E of 20 would give a share price of $265. Do I expect that anytime soon? No, but I expect something a lot higher than the present price. That's why I'm long AMD.>
Actually, I'd been expecting AMD to move up before now. However, I view AMD's window of opportunity to be very small, and requiring flawless execution on a broad front to keep Intel at bay. Some of your criticism of Intel's execution has merit, IMHO. However, I don't expect these snafus and plain bad luck to continue to make a huge impact on Intel's ability to respond to the competition. Already, a few of the items that are considered by Intel's detractors
as examples of Intel's stumbling are coming together, e.g., Coppermine, Profusion, and even Merced. Also, Despite the "sexiness" of deploying a Cu process on .18, I do not agree with that strategy at all from a manufacturing stand point. I have yet to see any data from a Cu fab in high volume production that indicates world beating yields. I steadfastly maintain that Al is adequate for .18 interconnects. I believe AMD could have gone this route, but got sucked in by the Cu hype.
I see an interim period where if AMD executes reasonably well, they can experience a mild amount of success with a niche product. However, by the timeframe you specify for significant profits (mid '00), I expect the competitive landscape to change significantly, and I do not see AMD having the resources to adequately maintain a path to 30% x86 profits. All IMHO, and no offense to anyone intended.
PB |
