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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing

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To: Michael Burry who wrote (8079)8/29/1999 2:24:00 PM
From: Paul Senior  Read Replies (3) of 78821
 
re: CHB/FLE/CMH,SPF,MWY, NOC, DAB

Because some of these mobile home manufacturers have expanded into retail sales, I believe they will eventually get better control of the entire supply chain from build-sell-install. This should alleviate some of the problems of each company overbuilding and excess supplies in retail centers. But not necessarily reduce the overbuilding in toto because of too many competitors. We are seeing manufacturing rationalization (layoffs)now by several manufacturers. I still like Fleetwood (FLE): lots of cash, dividend, large, and I see now they are advertising on TV. I still own Clayton Homes (CMH)too - as they hit new lows. Oops. They are not going away though, and I am considering adding to position if/when the stock drops further.

I've added to my position in SPF (Standard Pacific). They are a homebuilder which serves a market niche I like: move-up homes in California. And they've got the land to do it. When some of you Silicon Valley guys start looking to transfer your options and stock profits to tangibles-- I suspect that an SPF home might be a consideration.

I've greatly reduced my position in Northrop (NOC) after some favorable analysts comments pumped the stock and the stock has started to retrace; I have taken some profits in Midway (MDY)this week too, to trim my position a little. Unfortunately or unwisely for me, I own Dave & Busters (DAB). With Friday's DAB debacle, I used funds to add to this position.

Paul.
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