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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis

SPY 690.38

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Dec 24 4:00 PM EST

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To: KM who wrote (24107)	8/29/1999 6:26:00 PM
From: Lee Lichterman III	Read Replies (1) of 99985

Thanks for the article. I get a kick out of this double speak. Seems Tuesday night, there was NO WAY the Fed was going to raise rates again. Now less than a week later, Abby is saying if/when he raises rates, it won't hurt the market. Give her two weeks to think up a good one and she would spin all out nuclear war and total extinction as a bullish phenomonon. I have seen the more bullish poters here say that earnings are up significantly from last year. Has everyone forgotten that earnings last year dropped as a whole while stock prices rose anyway? I saw an interesting article sayng that earnings this year were actually down if you counted all corporate earnings not just the publically traded ones and the especially not the ones that are on the major indexes. Basically, the economy is slowing from the earnings growth standpoint, mnargins are being squeezed and inflationary pressures ae starting to be seen which will squeeze earnings even more. As for the short term, I wish I could post if I was bullish or bearish but I still see too much uncertainty to go in one camp or the other. MY new short term indicator I have been playing with should trigger a relief rally in the next day or two but I don't have a buy signal yet as of today. We could retrace down to my fork tine but a lot of what I see is still hinting this is just a minor pullback in a larger upward run that will end mid month or so. Regardless, I am still in the bearish camp mid term due to lack of strength in the banks, Dollar, etc. I went overly bullish whenthe TYX or Bond rate over shot my middle tine at 5.9% and I thought we were heading down to 5.7 or even 5.5% but recent action has shownthat it was most likely just an over shoot. I have read numerous articles this weekend stating the reason for the rapid drop was lack of volume but I have seen too many stocks sink forever on low volume. All that means is there are no buyers versus a lack of paniced sellers. This brings me to an interesting thing I read that didn't have a known source and I would be most interested if anyone can verify this. It was posted that the '87 crash was caused by only 3% of the market trying to sell which apparently is a large percentage in the over all picture. The same post stated that 6% of the market is expected to pull their money out of the market before Y2K. I have beenvacilating as to if Y2K would be bullish or bearish due to either the US market pulling out due to uncertainty and foreign money coming in as a safe haven approach. If twice as many people are going to be trying to ditch stock as in the 87 correction albeit not on the same day, won't this be much more than the foreign money coming in? Can anyone verify this 3% number in regards to '87??? I am off to a concert. Good Luck, Lee

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