Berney:" does PNX.X envy Techs ? "
>The Market action thus far in August has not been a total surprise. However, one more time, I just used the wrong horse !
...well I s'pose that's what separates the SPY or QQQ playing men from the boys, TB - with no specific risk, when you blow it on a SPDR, you had the whole market figgered wrong !
OTOH I just completed a correlation run and, guess what? CSCO is as good or better a proxy for NDX-100 as GE is for OEX-100. Indeed, if either one of these indices takes off without CSCO or GE in tow, you can consider the index a leading indicator for these two bellwethers ( which can be useful ;-)
...well now, if we dip then I'm expecting a rapid recovery, so that T+2 or T+3 would resemble a hanging man or hammer dilemma. That's the optimistic scenario {grin} Paul's probably right, you gotta test the apparent, intermediate-term UpTrend hereabouts.
What I don't want to see is a trading pattern on SPY similar to what happened during the 30-day period from week 4-APR to week 4-MAY; ie., sideways with a lot of little dips followed by just as rapid run-ups, with the index spinning its wheels (distribution?) followed by inevitable decay down to the rising long-term UpTrend Line = 200d EMA now. That's the sit on it and rotate or "meat grinder" scenario as some call it ( peut-etre, "Fed-Managed Assets = Wealth Effect" ? ) - my least favourite environment.
Without any weird news, the only market leadership that I can see is TYX - Bonds and commodity prices (like oil) and when this persists, the market becomes economic-indicator obsessive, reacting to silly things like employment reports or, how purchasing managers feel about things or, whether the BOJ is gonna print more Yen per Yank.
You know I've been playing with T for a couple of weeks now, and man - it sure seems like a "buy" to me, TB. Either it turns around or, that over-sold weekly sto is gonna break down, start "rolling around in the dirt" as Paul would say.
OTOH there is CSCO and QQQ/NDX, which looks like it's on rail road tracks - so mebbe I should dump the Turtle for the Hare, roll dem qubes for a change: CSCO hasn't had a down quarter since March, 1997 (^_^)
-Steve |
