To All, Sad news in the E-Mail today. The Tech Review has ceased publication. This is sad for several reasons: 1. It is impossible to count how many facts about tech cos. this newsletter uncovered that the mainstream analysts simply ignored or were not smart enough to notice. 2. The Macro Global work was outstanding and right on the mark. 3. The humor alone made it one monthly publication I always looked forward to reading and reading slowly, at my leisure, making sure I missed none of Larry or Danny's wit, all half of it. <vbg> The disclaimer was regularly one of the best pieces of humor published. 4. Larry is a great guy with a lot of talent and he deserved a big success with this venture. I don't know Danny other than through the TTR. 5. There are way too few small voices of wisdom in the financial arena that losing any of them is unfortunate. However, as a contrarian, it is one of the ghoulish signs we look for to show us that we are on the right track.
Being a contrarian can be a tough gig, though it is oh so profitable if you find the right medium for expression. Newsletter writing is one of the least likely to be successful for contrarians, IMHO. If a class pub like TTR can't make it, that just shows the herculean task at hand. Here is the way I look at it: The herd does not want to hear news that casts any doubt on their narrow-minded point of view. The general attitude is, "yeah, yeah, we know all about that bubble mania stuff and that none of these businesses are worth what their stocks are selling for. But enough of that crap. What should we buy right now for a double this week?" <g>
Getting the fundamentals right doesn't matter to the ignorati. Making up reasons after the fact to justify a price rise is what they want to hear. So, we have heard globalization as the driving force, then the rest of the world went to hell in a handbasket. Then we heard productivity, but that was a joke. Then, GDP growth, and that never happened. Ditto for eps growth. Lower interest rates became the catalyst and then they pisaddeared. Now, the ONLY bullish factor left is liquidity from excess debt creation, and that can't last long. But the bulls have trouble supporting that one, so they try to make up ever more fantastic lies about the cos.
I wrote a note last week criticizing Elaine Garzarelli's turn to bull. I like Elaine and when I managed money, almost always voted here some commission business as a strategist. But, I still suspect she became bullish because reason doesn't sell during a bubble, not because she really thinks this market is 22% undervalued. She is simply too smart to believe that.
That just shows the type of pressure you face in the newsletter biz when the lemmings are stampeding toward the cliffs.
Larry is a very talented guy and he will land on his feet and probably make a ton of money from his superior research skills. But I am sorry to see TTR go and, thanks, guys, for the issues we had. |
