The Justa & Lars Honors Bob Brinker Investment Club Message Board

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Pastimes : The Justa & Lars Honors Bob Brinker Investment Club

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To: Wally Mastroly who wrote (8237)	8/30/1999 1:01:00 PM
From: marc ultra	Read Replies (2) of 15132

Wally re ..Goldman's Cohen forecast a third rate increase by the Federal Reserve this year, probably in October. She expects stock prices will keep going up, though... I can't imagine that an Oct rate increase is priced into the market considering everybody was just yapping that the Fed is done for the year. One thing that always worries me about Bob making a timely call with the market either rising or near the top is the market right now seems very attuned and ready to react to any overly strong or otherwise negative fundamental news that theoretically might help turn the model negative. In the current market I wonder if we're already going to get hit significantly by the time we get word of a sell signal. I guess I'll stay pretty comfortable with my current moderately hedged position while awaiting further developments. If no call ever comes and the market takes off to 28- 30X earnings or on earnings expansion I'll badly underperform, if we move to marginal new highs and a sell signal comes I'll give up a little, if a sell comes in the next few months and is correct or the market tanks and Bob misses the call I'll be in reasonable shape. Marc

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