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Gold/Mining/Energy : Gold Price Monitor

GDXJ 136.34

-0.4%

Feb 10 4:00 PM EST

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To: Crimson Ghost who wrote (39773)	8/30/1999 1:38:00 PM
From: Zardoz	Read Replies (1) of 116976

If this is a final final shakeout in gold stocks it sure is small. XAU: 66.470 -0.420 -0.628% That probably would take the form of a false downside breakout by the XAU followed by a huge reversal. ok, sure... but if it breaks down, it'll most likely to always come up again. But that more to the nature of the hedgers. Under any breakout the larger group does not respond with an equal rise. That is where the deviation between the broader gold stocks and the hedgers exist. This is to say that:"The hedgers have a higher growth rate while the pog is falling or neutral" and the XAU/GOX index display this quite readily. As the GOX index is an equally weighted index, and the XAU is a growth related index. So the ratio of the two shows the growth of the XAU hedgers versus the none growth of the XAU hedgers. members.home.net I believe you'll find the dispersion growth rate 14% per year compounded. Which mean you can effectively short the GOX, and go long the XAU without much risk. Hutch PS: No I still see gold hitting a short term low in OCT 1-14, and starting a bull run in Nov 1-14/99 {should last 6 months}. Till then I expect lower lows.

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