No, you aren't lost. IF Nokia as a stock is any guage, QCOM should do reasonably well into the near term future. However, it depends on what you think is a fair and reasonable valuation instead of what the momentum smucks are doing, analyst are dartboarding about earnings, etc.
Realistically, on the issue of who or what to invest in, do your homework and DD. Evaluate all the news, events with clear and unbiased mind while filtering out the rah-rah noise. Don't just focus on the financial press for news, but also look towards the trade press instead. Financial press has told you about congestion in AT&T's network, but somehow failed to tell you Bell Atlantic has had the same problem, whereas the trade press has ID both and for the real reasons. Gee, you don't think that the financial press can be manipulated do you? How many long timers remeber WSJ article about Jacobs patter? Yet now, QCOM is the darling for the moment.
Go to a big industry trade show, like Supercomm. You'd be surprise how easy it is to see a trend in the industry. Finanical analyst, money managers and media reporters come under the heading of "poisionous flies in the marketplace". They can't differentiate between a fig newton and an electron, much less tell you what the technology is. Certainly the folks in the booth's are more than willing to tell you what they are upto!!!
It's not my money that you are investing, but yours. I look at who has the R&D machines and spends the R&D bucks. Also, look at alliances. CDMA has CDG, although I wonder how much longer they are going to be cooperative. |
